1. A method for forecasting a residual value of a first vehicle having first existent model years and first nonexistent model years with the first existent model years and the first nonexistent model years falling within a predetermined time frame, and the first vehicle further having a first vehicle identifier and a first set of attributes, said method utilizing a plurality of second vehicles having second existent model years and second nonexistent model years with each of the second vehicles having a unique vehicle identifier, with one or more steps of said method being implemented by a processor having a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium with an executable application stored thereon, and said method comprising the steps of:
populating a table with the first vehicle identifier for each of the first existent model years and the unique vehicle identifier of each of the plurality of second vehicles for each of the second existent model years to define an initial database without a vehicle identifier for each of the nonexistent model years;
determining a second set of attributes for each of the plurality of second vehicles;
comparing the first set of attributes with the second sets of attributes;
selecting one of the plurality of second vehicles for each nonexistent model year of the first vehicle within the predetermined time frame, the selected one of the plurality of second vehicles having attributes from the second sets of attributes that are common with attributes from the first set of attributes;
creating a proxy vehicle from the selected one of the plurality of second vehicles for each first nonexistent model year within the predetermined time frame, with the proxy vehicle having a proxy vehicle identifier;
populating the initial database with the proxy vehicle identifier for each first nonexistent model year to create a comprehensive database;
converting the proxy vehicle identifier for each first nonexistent model year into a monetary value; and
utilizing the processor to calculate the residual value of the first vehicle utilizing the monetary value of the proxy vehicle.
2. The method as set forth in claim 1 wherein the step of determining the second set of attributes is further defined as determining at least one of physical characteristics of each of the second vehicles, performance characteristics of each of the second vehicles, historical retail value data of each of the second vehicles, popularity of each of the second vehicles, and availability of each of the second vehicles.
3. The method as set forth in claim 1 wherein prior to comparing the first set of attributes with the second set of attributes, the method further comprises the steps of:
identifying the first vehicle as being a member of a first family of vehicles; and
narrowing the plurality of second vehicles to the second vehicles that fall within one of the first family of vehicles or a second family of vehicles that is financially or physically related to the first family of vehicles.
4. The method as set forth in claim 1 wherein the monetary value is a proxy manufacturer suggest retail price (MSRP), and wherein the step of converting the proxy vehicle identifier further includes the steps of:
obtaining the proxy MSRP for the proxy vehicle for each of the nonexistent model years; and
replacing the proxy vehicle identifier with the proxy MSRP.
5. The method as set forth in claim 4 further comprising the step of creating an MSRP database which comprises the steps of:
obtaining a first MSRP for the first vehicle for the existent model years and a unique MSRP for each of the second vehicles for the existent model years;
replacing the first vehicle identifier with the first MSRP and the unique vehicle identifier with the unique MSRP.
6. The method as set forth in claim 5 wherein the steps of obtaining the proxy MSRP and obtaining the first MSRP and the unique MSRP further includes the step of automatically retrieving the first MSRP, the unique MSRP, and the proxy MSRP from an electronic vehicle pricing guide.
7. The method as set forth in claim 5 wherein the first vehicle includes a lease period and the step of utilizing the processor to calculate the residual value of the first vehicle further includes the steps of:
determining a rough book value for each year of the lease period;
determining a percentage of the first MSRP retained for each year of the lease period to further define the monetary value; and
calculating the residual value for each year of the lease period utilizing the monetary value.
8. The method as set forth in claim 7 wherein the step of determining the rough book value for each year of the lease period further includes the steps of:
identifying a year of manufacture of the first vehicle;
obtaining a current rough trade-in value for each existent and nonexistent model year of the first vehicle prior to the year of manufacture of the first vehicle within the predetermined time frame; and
calculating a percentage between the current rough trade-in values and the first MSRP of the first vehicle to define a rough trade-in percentage for each existent and nonexistent model year of the first vehicle prior to the year of manufacture of the first vehicle within the predetermined time frame.
9. The method as set forth in claim 7 wherein the step of determining the percentage of the first MSRP value retained further includes the steps of dividing the rough book value for each year of the lease period by the MSRP of first vehicle.
10. A method of determining a lease payment of a first vehicle having first existent model years and first nonexistent model years with the first existent model years and the first nonexistent model years falling within a predetermined time frame, and the first vehicle further having a first vehicle identifier and a first set of attributes, said method identifying a plurality of second vehicles having second existent model years and second nonexistent model years with each of the second vehicles having a unique vehicle identifier, with one or more steps of said method being implemented by a processor having a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium with an executable application stored thereon, and said method comprising the steps of:
populating a database with the first vehicle identifier for each of the first existent model years and the unique vehicle identifier of each of the plurality of second vehicles for each of the second existent model years to define an initial database without a vehicle identifier for each of the nonexistent model years;
determining a second set of attributes for each of the plurality of second vehicles;
comparing the first set of attributes with the second sets of attributes;
selecting one of the plurality of second vehicles for each nonexistent model year of the first vehicle within the predetermined time frame, the selected one of the plurality of second vehicles having attributes from the second sets of attributes that are common with attributes from the first set of attributes;
creating a proxy vehicle from the selected one of the plurality of second vehicles for each nonexistent model year of the first vehicle within the predetermined time frame, with the proxy vehicle having a proxy vehicle identifier;
populating the initial database with the proxy vehicle identifier for each first nonexistent model year to create a comprehensive database;
converting the proxy vehicle identifier for each first nonexistent model year into a monetary value; and
utilizing the processor to calculate the residual value of the first vehicle utilizing the monetary value of the proxy vehicle; and
utilizing the processor to determine the lease payment of the first vehicle using the calculated residual value.
11. The method as set forth in claim 10 wherein the first vehicle has a year of manufacture and further includes the steps of:
identifying a lease term of the first vehicle; and
selecting a number of years prior to the year of manufacture of the first vehicle and a number of years subsequent to the year of manufacture of the first vehicle up to the end of the lease term to further define the predetermined time frame.
12. The method as set forth in claim 10 wherein the step of populating the initial database with the proxy vehicle identifier further includes the steps of:
populating the initial database with a first proxy vehicle for at least one of the first nonexistent model years; and
populating the initial database with a second proxy vehicle for at least one other of the first nonexistent model years with the second proxy vehicle being different from the first proxy vehicle.
13. The method as set forth in claim 10 further comprising the method step of estimating a taxation of the lease payment of the first vehicle that further includes the steps of:
generating a tax database with a tax rate for a plurality of geographic areas each having a predefined taxation rule; and
automatically estimating the taxation utilizing the tax rate for a selected geographic area and the predefined taxation rule.
14. The method as set forth in claim 13 wherein the step of determining the lease payment of the first vehicle is further defined as determining the lease payment utilizing the calculated residual value and the estimated taxation.
15. The method as set forth in claim 10 wherein the step of utilizing the processor to determine the lease payment of the first vehicle is further defined as determining the lease payment utilizing the calculated residual value and a credit score of a customer.
16. A system for determining a lease payment of a first vehicle having first existent model years and first nonexistent model years with said first existent model years and said first nonexistent model years falling within a predetermined time frame, and said first vehicle further having a first vehicle identifier and a first set of attributes, said system identifying a plurality of second vehicles having second existent model years and second nonexistent model years with each of said second vehicles having a unique vehicle identifier and a second set of attributes, said system comprising:
an initial database comprising said first vehicle identifier for each of said first existent model years and said unique vehicle identifier of each of said plurality of second vehicles for each of said second existent model years with said initial database being without a vehicle identifier for each of said first and second nonexistent model years;
a comprehensive database comprising said initial database populated with a proxy vehicle identifier for said nonexistent model years of said first vehicle within said predetermined time frame with said proxy vehicle identifier identifying a proxy vehicle from a selected one of said plurality of second vehicles having attributes from said second set of attributes that are common with attributes from said first set of attributes;
a computer comprising a processor and a storage medium with said initial database and said comprehensive database stored in said storage medium;
a first application executable by said processor and comprising computer-readable instructions for converting said proxy vehicle identifier for each first nonexistent model year into a monetary value; and
a second application executable by said processor and comprising computer-readable instructions for determining said lease payment of said first vehicle utilizing said monetary value.
17. The system as set forth in claim 16 wherein said second application further comprises computer-readable instructions for estimating a taxation of said lease payment of said first vehicle.
18. The system as set forth in claim 17 wherein said computer-readable instructions for determining said lease payment comprises computer-readable instructions for:
generating a tax database comprising a tax rate for a plurality of geographic areas each having a predefined taxation rule; and
automatically estimating said taxation utilizing said tax rate for a selected one of said plurality of geographic areas and said predefined taxation rule.
19. The system as set forth in claim 17 wherein said second application further comprises computer-readable instructions for determining said lease payment utilizing said calculated residual value and said estimated taxation.
20. The system as set forth in claim 16 wherein said processor further comprises computer-readable instructions for determining said lease payment utilizing said calculated residual value and a credit score of a lessee.
21. The system as set forth in claim 16 wherein said first set of attributes comprises physical characteristics of said first vehicle, performance characteristics of said first vehicle, historical retail value data of said first vehicle, popularity of said first vehicle, availability of said first vehicle, and combinations thereof, and wherein said second set of attributes comprises physical characteristics of each of said second vehicles, performance characteristics of each of said second vehicles, historical retail value data of each of said second vehicles, a popularity of each of said second vehicles, an availability of each of said second vehicles, and combinations thereof.
The claims below are in addition to those above.
All refrences to claim(s) which appear below refer to the numbering after this setence.
1. A method of timing the delay of a resynchronization at a network management device, the method comprising:
defining an interval length;
determining that a resynchronization is required;
starting a first timer;
determining the number of incoming event messages over a period of time the length of the interval;
determining the number of incoming event messages exceeds a threshold amount;
starting a second timer; and
repeating the step of determining the number of incoming event messages over a period of time until the number of incoming event messages is less than the threshold amount.
2. The method of claim 1, the method further comprising, when the second timer exceeds a predefined maximum, triggering a resynchronization process.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the number of incoming event messages over a period of time further comprises:
storing a first timestamp at a beginning of a first interval;
storing a first message ID;
storing a second timestamp at a beginning of a second interval;
storing a second message ID; and
calculating the number of event messages divided by the length of the interval, wherein the number of event messages is a value of the second message ID minus a value of the first message ID and the interval is a value of the second timestamp minus a value of the first timestamp.
4. The method of claim 1, further comprising, when the number of incoming event messages over a period of time is less than the threshold amount:
verifying that the number of incoming event messages is less than the threshold amount for a number of intervals.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step of verifying that the number of incoming event messages is less than the threshold amount comprises:
setting a counter equal to a number of verification samples;
determining the number of incoming event messages over a verification period of time the length of the interval;
determining the number of incoming event messages is less than the threshold amount;
decrementing the counter; and
repeating the steps of determining the number of incoming event messages, determining the number of incoming event messages is less than the threshold, and decrementing the counter until the counter is equal to zero.
6. The method of claim 5, further comprising, when the counter is equal to zero:
storing a first resynchronization timestamp;
starting a resynchronization process;
storing a first resynchronization message ID, wherein the first resynchronization message ID comprises a first message ID of a received message;
completing the resynchronization process;
storing a second resynchronization timestamp;
storing a second resynchronization message ID, wherein the second resynchronization message ID comprises a second message ID of a received message; and
calculating the number of event messages received during resynchronization divided by a resynchronization interval, wherein the number of event messages received during resynchronization is a value of the second resynchronization message ID minus a value of the first resynchronization message ID and the resynchronization interval is a value of the second resynchronization timestamp minus a value of the first resynchronization timestamp.
7. The method of claim 6, further comprising determining the resynchronization process was not optimal.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein determining the resynchronization process was not optimal comprises:
determining that messages were dropped due to buffer overflow.
9. The method of claim 7, wherein determining the resynchronization process was not optimal comprises:
determining that a resynchronization is required.
10. The method of claim 7, further comprising determining that the number of event messages received during resynchronization divided by a resynchronization interval is less than the threshold.
11. The method of claim 10, further comprising setting the threshold to the greater of a predefined minimum threshold and a large percentage of the number of event messages received during resynchronization divided by a resynchronization interval.
12. The method of claim 11, wherein the percentage is ninety-five percent (95%).
13. The method of claim 7, further comprising determining that the number of event messages received during resynchronization divided by a resynchronization interval is greater than or equal to the threshold.
14. The method of claim 13, further comprising:
determining the number of verification samples is less than a maximum number of verification samples; and
increasing the number of verification samples by one (1).
15. The method of claim 6, further comprising determining the resynchronization process was possibly optimal.
16. The method of claim 15, further comprising calculating an average verification rate as the number of event messages received during the verification periods divided by the length of the interval times the number of verification samples.
17. The method of claim 16, further comprising:
determining the average verification rate is greater than or equal to the number of event messages received during resynchronization divided by a resynchronization interval;
generating a random number;
calculating a percentage difference between the average verification rate and the number of event messages received during resynchronization divided by a resynchronization interval;
determining that the percentage difference is greater than the random number; and
decrementing the number of verification samples by one (1).
18. A non-transitory machine-readable storage medium encoded with instructions for execution by a network management device for timing the delay of a resynchronization at the network management device, the non-transitory machine-readable storage medium comprising:
instructions for defining an interval length;
instructions for determining that a resynchronization is required;
instructions for starting a first timer;
instructions for determining the number of incoming event messages over a period of time the length of the interval;
instructions for determining the number of incoming event messages exceeds a threshold amount;
instructions for starting a second timer; and
instructions for repeating the step of determining the number of incoming event messages over a period of time until the number of incoming event messages is less than the threshold amount.
19. The non-transitory machine-readable storage medium of claim 18, the non-transitory machine-readable storage medium further comprising, instructions for, when the second timer exceeds a predefined maximum, triggering a resynchronization process.
20. The non-transitory machine-readable storage medium of claim 18, wherein the instructions for determining the number of incoming event messages over a period of time further comprises:
instructions for storing a first timestamp at a beginning of a first interval;
instructions for storing a first message ID;
instructions for storing a second timestamp at a beginning of a second interval;
instructions for storing a second message ID; and
instructions for calculating the number of event messages divided by the length of the interval, wherein the number of event messages is a value of the second message ID minus a value of the first message ID and the interval is a value of the second timestamp minus a value of the first timestamp.